一、主题：Are recoveries all the same?

二、主讲人：黄宇凡，首都经济贸易大学国际经济管理学院助理教授。2004年获得国立政治大学（台湾）的经济学学士学位，2006年获得台湾大学的经济学硕士学位，并于2013年获得华盛顿大学的经济学博士学位。黄宇凡博士的研究领域包括实证宏观经济学、贝叶斯计量经济学、非线性时间序列、货币经济学。

三、时间：2015年10月28日（周三），12:30-13:30

四、地点：中央财经大学主楼913会议室

五、主持人：金谷，必赢565net官网讲师

Abstract: Departing from the existing literature, we allow the shape of recovery to be different following each recession. We are motivated by the observation that post-recession growth paths seem to vary a great deal across different recessions. Using U.S. data, we find significant evidence for U-shaped recovery. However, the probability of a U-shaped exhibits large variations across recessions. Specifically, the recent three recoveries are very likely to be L-shaped. We also compute Beveridge-Nelson trends and cycles during each recession. We find that early recessions were largely due to drops in cyclical activity, but that recent recessions are associated almost entirely with losses in the permanent component of GDP.