一、主题：On the Simultaneity Problem in Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Growth Debate

二、主讲人：苟琴，必赢565net官网讲师。2014年毕业于北京大学，获经济学博士；2009年毕业于南开大学，获经济学学士。2011年9月至2012年9月在美国纽约大学访问。主要研究领域包括：国际金融、宏观经济、实证银行经济等。在China Economic Review，China & World Economy，Asia Development Policy Review，《管理世界》、《世界经济》及《金融研究》等重要期刊上发表论文多篇。曾多次参加国内外高水平学术会议。

三、时间：2016年1月7日 （周四），13:00-14:00

四、地点：学术会堂606会议室

五、主持人：陈锐，必赢565net官网讲师

论文摘要：We revisit the effect of capital account liberalization on economic growth by applying the instrumental variable approach to solve the simultaneity problem. We show that capital account liberalization has a significant positive average effect on real per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth if, and only if, the endogeneity problem caused by the reverse causal effect of per capita GDP growth on capital account liberalization is adjusted for in the growth regression. Instrumental variables estimates show that a 1 percentage point increase in per capita GDP growth decreased capital account liberalization by over 0.02. After adjusting for the reverse causal effect, it shows that a 0.1 increase in capital account liberalization increased real per capita GDP growth by around 0.3 percentage points. This effects tend to be more pronounced for an economy with lower GDP, or higher degree of democracy. Further mechanism exploring shows that the incentive to increase investment drives the slow growing economies to open capital account more.